Pendahuluan

Sejak munculnya masalah kenaikan BBM, macetnya pembayaran subprime mortgage sampai krisis keuangan Amerika Serikat yang dipicu oleh meningkatnya biaya serangan bersenjatanya di Irak, Afghanistan dan  Pakistan, maka isu mengenai perdagangan bebas saat ini agak tenggelam. Seluruh dunia terhenyak dan para ekonom duniapun tentu banyak yang berpikir kembali pada ucapan John Maynard Keynes, ekonom di masa awal sampai pertengahan abad 20 yang pernah meramalkan situasi ekonomi, pasar,  jika dikendalikan oleh “animal spirits”. Keynes mengatakan,”Spirit ini akan menghasilkan pertumbuhan, tapi pada waktunya nanti kepanikan mereka justru akan muncul ketimbang memberikan jalan keluar. Mereka harus ditahan di dalam (domesticated) untuk menjamin bahwa hukum rimba tidak berlaku.”[1]

Introduction

From the fuel price rise, subprime mortgage payment failure to US financial crisis stimulated by armed attack expense rise in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, the issue about free trade somehow is sinking. The whole world are leaped up and many of the economists of course  rewind what John Maynard Keynes, the economist from the beginning to the middle of the 20^th century, who had predicted such market and economy, if they give up to be controlled by “animal spirits.” Keynes said, “This spirit will result in growth, but the time will come when their panicking turns up instead of the way out. They have to be domesticated to secure that the jungle law does not work.” [1]

Keynes period can of course be deemed different from the crisis period at present. Current economy is admittedly founded more on the global financial dynamics facing the climate change. However we must not forget that in Keynes period, in Adam Smith’s (invisible hands) even in the previous century and at the nineteenth century in Marx period (overproduction, materialism, labour exploitation, political authority from the social change), the human greed on economic sources has been considered.

Positively, Keynes, Smith and Marx are philosophers, and economics is one of their majors. They are not business economists. Their thoughts are clear and simple but they have reached out to the business moral error aspects. Then they have been infuriated with the elite greed, and they take into accounts the effects on deflation, unemployment, production excess, and so on. For them, the wealth can be measured simply. The state will be wealthy and the economy will not go to the depression as long as human are not greedy. Nowadays, many economists and government officials are also businessmen, not philosophers. Thus we can estimate the economy breaking down because there have not been natural and honest contemplative faculties and wisdom of the decision makers.

Therefore we can investigate also, the four issues affecting the decrease of the world financial current dynamics is actually triggered by the resistance of the society and developing countries facing the uncontrollable economy of a small group of world-level US money market practitioners. They ask for the implementation of free trade clearly behaving like animals in John Maynard Keynes measurement.

The free trade era is the dream of each of the economy practitioners to expand without any customs payment. We can say that the free trade era is the era to legitimate the smuggle of trade activities once were prohibited by every parties except by the economy practitioners. As a matter of fact, almost all the communities of the non-developed countries will move to refuse it. Indonesia has too shown worry and realized the proof of being victimized of free trade. The people count and portrait that our poverty is continuously growing severely instead of diminishing.

On the other hand, many problems hit US. Facing their state economic difficulty pressures, the giant corporation members centered in Wall street may beforehand become more nervous finding that the mission to gain profits faces many claims and requirements proposed by the non developed countries. While the world competitors using other cleverness in the last several years can not be pressed further by US government threats.

So as the turn-up of various types of stock trade becoming more uncontrollable by more individual players entering competition. It is unneglectable also the ”delicate threat” of Al Gore group scratching climate change issues proved to draw the world attention by showing the touching natural events such as tsunami in Asia and Katrina gales in New Orleans. Bank indonesia data shows that Wall Street stock movement slows down unstably, can be viewed from the graphic below :

Unfortunately, all of these are not seriously handled by Bush administration. Bush is powerless, because he comes from the giant oil corporation group having for decades dominated energy resources both in US and other countries. Various complex problems emerge in large scale and all at once.

The majority of economics and politics actors are old players still dreaming US superpowerness in the world. While in front of them there have been new players, the people and the governments from the other parts of the earth starting to shift from US superpowerfulness. EU starts to control its support and participation in Iraq. China starts to spread funding everywhere. Latin America countries are US stepchildren starting to dare its arrogance over US power. India is successful in hardware and software industries of computers and steels. All as through ignore US role in Iraq and they seem only chase economic welfare. The war counted by US seems not to be idol again among the world politic players. US army roles in Iraq wars are more factually refused, especially to be related with the financial crisis break. It is unavoidable that every giants in US becoming the main actors other than Bush are blamed for triggering the crisis threatening a depression.
They realize that on one side a US governments authorize for maximally ten years period, while the corporations are experienced players having been so often going through the shifts of power and influence. They have to consider the development of uncontrollable “bubble economy”, globalizing nature and economy threats.

The crisis they welcome, and have taken into account before, by early asking of pension funds, initial incentives they are sure to be granted because their world level will trap US government to giving hands. Even Corporate Social Responsibility can also trap the government to grant bail-out funds. So they get the ‘pension funds” from Bush who gives $700 billion bailoutto thousands of financial corporations. Later the funds of helping stop the credit freezing turn out to be handed out to their ex leaders who are factually guilty.[2]

Bailout does not end their tactics. The old way is still effective – participating in preconditioning the new president team while keeping to control Bush while he is still in power. If not, they will try to sell the goods and prepare everything to face everything Obama is not interested in.[3] Not long afterwards, fund liquidation is quite possible to facilitate them attempt new businesses. The premise is clear, that is ‘to help Obama’ quicken to realize his promise to improve employment, to facilitate redemption of the possibility of tax income reduction, which may be different from the expectation as shown on Table 1 below, by helping Obama levy tax on upper-middle people (up from $200,000) for the welfare of people with income under $150,000 annually,[4] and reducing the budget deficit by bail-out.

Table 1 : The percentage average of changes in tax income 2009

Tourism business, banking credits and farming/plantation expansion worldwide is enforceable. The three types of business have been often observed not to cause too much resistence from local communities and climate change groups. How? Rather than establishing supervisory institutions as Sarkozy suggests, risky in their old exclusive position, the Worldbank dan IMF will be suggested to improve roles, however also to be more low profile, friendly to persuade the developing and under-developed countries to”build the new economy order which is friendly and hospitality.” Why? The Worldbank has much served them in decades by help them take advantage on liberation in every member countries. Let’s see who is accepted later, offering to IFI increasing roles or Sarkozy and Obama styles? Or they will use old pattern, by creating little turmoil in every non-developed countries? This is extremely dangerous!

It is possibly unavoidable for Obama, may IFIs be asked to approach several NGOs and plan to construct a new structural adjustment program for tourism and crop transportation interests. Corn seeds and wheatflour of US for instance can be soon campaigned for worldwide expansion due to short harvest period. Everybody will be persuaded to eat corns and wheats. Although the money circling slower, the farmers are still happy. Financial business can be still revolved by slower and smaller wheels, but more expansive.Thus, what form of guarantees to go through for cheap food capital circle? Nothing other than free trade!
What is free trade really?

Free trade is open economy cooperation convention, free from capital customs and the facilities to get market shares for products, conducted by two countries (bilateral) or two groups of countries (as a matter of fact, multilateral). These products from top to bottom are from agricultural commodities (seeds, fertilizers, medicine, pesticides, etc.), mining, industries (health – genetic, medicine, etc), financial sectors, patent rights and human resource (local workers and migrants). The idea of free trade began since WTO deadlock.
In 1990s, US pioneering to areas of ex-Sovyet Union, Central Asia and South Asia and America Pacific (Canada, Columbia, Equador, Peru, Chile, Mexico),  Oceania (Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Pacific Archipelago), East and South-east Asia, totally 403 agreements are part of liberal economic movement whose characteristic is to give individual freedom to get and pile capital for market share as broad as possible.

There are three forms of the free trade, closer economic partnership, economic partnership agreement and free trade. Actually the form of trade followed by claims of facilities, is usually conducted by the developed countries on the developing and underdeveloped countries since centuries ago. The underdeveloped countries are usually made as ports without rights to levy taxes on the capitals or commodities harboured there. Generally, the countries are first made colonials of developed countries as France, United Kingdom, Portuguese, Spain, Japan and Dutch.

Currently the trade is formed by taking the governments of both the capital source and destination countries to participate in conventions on free trade. Unhesitantly, the governments are also urged to regulate on trade liberalism by establishing the world trade agencies such as WTO (1995) camuflased by leaning on United Nations Charter regulation for the world welfare.

So as each of the member countries is supported by the multilateral financial institutions such as the Worldbank to direct economy liberation. Their tasks among others are to give electricity, water facilities, road and building constructions, new service systems (one stop window, currently named) to facilitate investments and all of the regulation and law ratifications paid by big funding to assure the foreign partners can have economy activities easily, freely, protected by local governments and “undisturbed”. If thus, the non-developed countries are to be conquered by the foreign corporation and state interests.

In various development stages, the cooperations look more friendly. The developed countries deceptively always take the developing countries in the negotiation processes. In WTO deliberations, such as in Doha Round 2001 the developing countries are possible for negotiations. In fact, the weaker partners suffer greater loss while the developed countries put heavier pressures. [5] As a result, generally the weak state administrators shift the pressures excessively on their people, and the income gap are getting wider. In many countries this violence is still going on.

Up to their current stage, the weak developing countries such as Indonesia has to enforce liberalism, be banned to subsidize, reduce or not give pension funds to their people or local labours. Otherwise, the developed countries continue to ask more incentives to their corporations, especially in the matter of taxes to protect their people. If our people react, the developed countries threaten to move their investment to Indonesia competitors. This imbalanced situations make conflicts easy to continue in developing/underdeveloped countries not following their claims. The information era and political democracy has also given chance to weak country people to claim for economic independence through various opinions and urges.

On the other side, our government stands more by the economic values built by the desire to obtain international short-term accesses such as debt or investment increases without transparency where they go. They are culprits commonly abusing the poverty measurement to ask more funds, facilitated by the Worldbank et al, to partner countries. If the poverty term is used as measurement, then it is clear for us to see the government produces the same economic strategy package reference year by year, the portrait will look the same within a decade that results in the unemployment percentage being kept contantly high and vulnerable in a decade, and the poverty will be sustained not lower than 10% number !

Is Free Trade Era to Start?

The obsession of the developed countries to apply free trade has started long ago. Since colonial era, a number of customs-free harbours as free trade gates, such as in Mauritius (1814) and Singapore (Raffles era, 1826) open our eyes to see how easy such economic service give many benefits to investors and corporations. The same is dreamt to apply in modern ’colonies’ including Indonesia.

In Indonesia, in the end of 1970s, the free trade idea was established in Batam after successfully making it as one of its lucrative oil export harbours. The same expectation was demanded in Sabang, Aceh. Then without the people awareness, Indonesia was once more made as the harbour for new colonials especially of Japan, US, England and Dutch by limitation of its oil shipment satked at low cost base and the exploration construction was factually legalized by Indonesian governments through debt agreement concession and oil drilling contract for decades.

By those benefits, Batam then was targeted as a pilot project for free trade to apply later. The harbour exempts customs for goods or assemblies from Singapore and Japan. Even Bank Indonesia data in 2007, Japan and Singapore are the main export partners in Indonesia other than ASEAN, as much as US$13,287,158,000 and US$8,860,124,000 (Bank Indonesia, 2007).

Doubled profit for developed countries, Indonesia ’seemed’ to get shares of it. It was said that ndonesian economic growth advanced significantly, in which the working ages got more access and employments in electronic and automotive spare-part assembly. Even Batam site combined with Bintan and Karimun in Riau Archipelago province recently gets economic growth jumping up to 12.09 percent in the third quarter in 2007, far increasing from the yearly growth average of 6.58 percent (Bank Indonesia, 2007). This advancement has presses inflation that places Indonesia more stable and sustainable economically.

The ’success story’ prevailed in 1980s to dominate economic politics news and happenings with spreading numerous thoughts about the possibility of free trade and profitability prospect to achieve. Initially they have to set a very liberal new trade mechanism besides Batam nurseries of share trade and financial deregulation. So share sales was rolled by establishing Dana Reksa, a capital investment corporation in 1984. 

October 88 Package (Pakto 88) gives banking deregulation to facilitate bank establishiment. Consequently, hundreds of banks were constructed everywhere. This undertaking was followed by Jakarta Stock Exchange opening in 1992 as the center of share trade. We can see the excess until now. Indonesia is in the first economic euphoria. Liberalism era seems to drag Indonesian image to anti-crisis wealth. All of the economic philosophers and practitioners seem to have forgotten that Indonesian economic beauty-look is truly inflation-vulnerable painting because its economy is built by reliying on the profit taking and accumulation of resource funds. It is analyzed fromthe fact that the capital comes form financial multilateral debt (Worldbank. IMF, ADB) and expanding foreign investment using Dana Reksa, JSE etc. All of the parties enforce preconditions based on reasoning that Indonesia will not advance without them, and command all the details of business activities.

However, Indonesia government politic turbulence creates conflicts in many places. Batam was broken down because the economy did not come to rise while the government was continuously changed and scolding, in the bound of corruption wrapped in different dynamics. As the result, we see Batam portrait now as the free trade harbour taking the effect of impoverishment and spreading iron garbage everywhere without remaining any self-reliance at all. It looks as the holiday place for Singapore labours which is actually not its potential, because the tourism capital mostly come from Singapore and the remaining from Jakarta.

Free Trade in INdonesia

Indonesia has been involved in free trade agreement with Japan. May be next year by Obama’s smiles, US will push Indonesia to immediately sign the agreement. As ASEAN member, Indonesia is pressed also to sign ASEAN-China and ASEAN-India free trades, and possibly ASEAN-EU next month. From all the agreement bindings, the most transparent to view is the economic cooperation between Indonesia and Japan 2007 to implement this year.

The story of Batam above is only a little of examples of the excess caused by the free trade in Indonesia. There is another example, such as economy cooperation agreement between Indonesia and Japan. There are 13 more types of trade asked by Japan than Indonesia. Indonesia is preconditioned to secure secret information, adopt harmonization systems, investment protection, anti-dumping, tax evaluation and tarrif measurement, and no farming export. There are no Indonesia demands of sanctions or expense refund, if the capacity building or technical assistance is not done or if there are any failures in nurse training. It is said that in 2007 there will be US$7.37 billion import from Japan and US$24 billion, especially of gas that is reported formally about 65% of the whole Japan industrial sector needs. Nevertheless, Indonesia does not hold the gas sales profit because it is used to repay Indonesia’s debt, construction costs and Japan gas transportation imposed on Indonesia.

Indonesia liquid natural gas price is about US$5-6 per mmbtu with the assumption of oil basic price of US$50-60 per barrel  (this calculation depends on Indonesia and Japan government negotiation, the gas mmbtu price is estimated to be around 1:10 for the volatility of oil price in the international market), a very low amount compared with Japan’s getting benefit from using the gas in its various giant industries. Not to mention the price of Indonesia oil sold to Japan. None of Indonesian economists dares to calculate how much loss suffered by Indonesia from the bad prospectus of the economic cooperation, though it is apparent.

How is Indonesia future chance?

Indonesian government should have comprehended what US faces nowadays. Like the abovementioned US financial crisis commentaries, we can describe Indonesia as US. Indonesia has suffered from financial crisis in 1998 with bail-out of Rp 144 trillion[6] out of the Central Bank Liquidation Aids (BLBI) fund arbitrarily given out to create great loss on the government there, unsolvable today.

Current government whose biography like of Bush does not have any courage to evade Bakrie group plea to buy their corporation shares impacted by US financial crisis. The government should have not been too weak to say no to the bankrupt conglomerate group. May the government give helps but they have to give sanction if Bakrie does not repay. They have to select also who are really weak and need help, and who are only playing fund games. If we have such government, they will certainly give quick-response to solve the problems of the crisis impact possibility, by opening employment or business opportunities by good reserves. If the government is strong and independent enough, the financial crisis impact should not have steered Indonesia to be pressed down to open the free trade. They should have not been reluctant to be strictly suggest to their partners that they should consolidate inwards first to strengthen their economic foundation measureably and completely within two years.

If our government is experienced and wise enough, they must have considered that the national political interest frameworks of free trade implementation is actually not as easy as the dreams of all the practitioners, thinkers of business and economics, who often see the economic sustainability shortly, measuring them merely from financial profit and growth.

The resistence from people suffering from them is the most disturbing obstruction. While the media service systems are more opened, recognized as the positive excess of globalization. And also they get more experience in various government systems. They are all open the people critical awareness wherever including in Indonesia to claim for the same benefits and opportunities of the world business practitioners. Such awareness dispersion should have made our government not too boastful that only they and the big investors who can prosper the nation.

The free trade impact has made the education and health service sectors abandoned instead for the sake of a small class of political elites. The people are still quiet and prudent. Like the sea, they have just shown little waves not ’tsunami’. However from various media reports, the people can not be persuaded anymore by mere baits of services such as CSR in the free trade. That’s why, by now they, aware of their own capability and skills, are thinking of employments with the same degree of income as the investor country.

In the last period, our reserves slightly increases but the unemployment increases also even the poverty increases higher. Besides, infant death rate turns out to be relatively stagnant by unspreading health services.

In 2003-2007, infant death rate achieves 34 per 1000 births. Reserve increase turns out not to be followed by the people welfare improvement. Even the reserves are used more to defray the shares of Indover, Bakrie and Central Bank Liquidity Aids that are political elite class assets, in relation with the global crisis and rupiah exchange rate fluctuation.

    Source : Bank Indonesia, BPS, 2007

The awareness starts to be built to dare to claim the government to give decent subsidies, free from corruption collusion and nepotism (KKN), managed by proffesional, nationalistic and just  government systems. While the beaurocrat officials, in state-owned research institutions and executive departments and the legislative council members, look more clear to rely their lives on the projects, popularity, professional bureaucratic and elite lifestyles. Simultaneously, we have not seen they perform really professional thoughts and discipline work capability. Such human quality just prevails in Indonesia. By such ’intellectual’ quality, who are pro-international giant corporations and financial institutions which are really exhausting projects, the free trade can flow fluently to the destination, and Indonesia get sunk down in debt traps, on the earth pits, wallowed by garbages, hovered by smokes.

It is easy for us to guess where the problem will flow next, by bailouts exhausting our finance, that is giving out state capitals without any sanctions will only make our government more professional beggars of excessive debts and investments, together with institutions such as the Worldbank, ADB and IMF, look for deceptive political ways to blur people control. They do this to anticipate the price increase and rupiah falling down, to prevent inflation, while they have never programmed export commodities will. Moreover, they will conspirate that the developed countries such as United States, Europe Union, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and China will together ask the certainty of the decision makers to immediately operate in Indonesia. They think this will prevent the same things, that are inflation, production and buying power decreases, unemployment increase, reasoning to help Indonesia and move the world economy to the fairer systems.

Of course they will first consolidate inwards, determine new rules and policies to control the finance and economy to prevent the uncertainty in their homes before they are ready for others’ countries. We have to be aware that parts of the people and governments of these countries have been so experienced in political consolidation without bloody conflicts, swanking or any frenetic noise. Such community types are easy and quick in setting the complete free trade agenda with profit-loss calculation economically and politically. They will clearly defend their states from all the economic dirts and obey their community demands. Therefore, they will ask Indonesia as their economic activities to gain profit for their countries, not Indonesia.

It is not surprising for us to see that our government is hastily undecisive in every agreements, without preparing economic portfolios seriously, measureably, and test-properly in convening their demands. Our government personnels have minimal values, are politically unskillful and are not professional in economic governance, compared with the above governments. While they set our people aside, never putting them as subjects in any trans-national agreements. Our government can have consolidated like the foreign countries politics by building high nationalism and togetherness without despising the opposing groups who have truly honest desire to build this country. UNCTAD (UN Conference on Trade and Development) statements facing the financial crisis in the press release, looking more responsbile and protective of all the people of the world, than the statements of Indonesian governments of their own people.[7]

Whatever the condition of any governments in the world, rich or poor, including Indonesia, they should have realized that it is useless to cover trade agreements up to sacrifice public interests. Our people will at last know and view them as unfair trade ethics. If the free trade era was coercively opened by any ways and excuses, the developing country people will claim for justice from the developed country standards. Its impact will be expansive like of tsunami, if the governments convening with the economic practitioners do not ever think of clean up their greed in economy. Among various crisis in which the natural threats get bigger by excessive exploration (for example in Aceh), the world economic practitioners and government should not anymore rely on profit motto and excessive expansion, but to be more efficient and fairly treat the human and nature!

[6] To add with recapitulated obligation injection in the national banking, totally becoming Rp 650 trillion – 700 trillion. (Bank Indonesia, 2007)